The FTSE Short Term Forecast gives traders an accurate forecast of the short term direction of the FTSE 100 and is edited by Thierry Laduguie.

It's a fact that 90% of the most liquid stocks with follow the movements of the FTSE, so whether you trade the index or UK stocks, you must have a reliable forecasting tool in order to achieve long term success. The FTSE Short Term Forecast provides this. Each report contains unrivalled market timing analysis derived from a new and innovative strategy designed by Thierry Laduguie, who is an expert in market forecasting techniques.

The FTSE Short Term Forecast is published daily and discusses market action using Elliott wave analysis and some powerful market timing tools such as the BTI (Bullish Trend Indicator) and the Top 20 Differential indicator. 

The BTI is a sentiment indicator and a powerful market forecasting indicator. When the daily change in BTI is up, sentiment is bullish and when it is down sentiment is bearish. The BTI is used to assess the near term direction of the market and confirms the Elliott wave count. 

The 34-day BTI tells us whether the main trend in the FTSE is up or down. When the 34-day BTI is positive we are in a bull market, when the 34-day BTI is negative we are in a bear market.

The 13-day BTI is used to identify intermediate FTSE tops/bottoms. When the 13-day BTI is overbought the FTSE is near a top. When the 13-day BTI is oversold the FTSE is near a bottom.

The Top 20 Differential indicator detects short term overbought/oversold levels in the market. This indicator tells us when the market has reached a temporary support or resistance level. This valuable indicator enables investors to take profits at the right time just as the market is about to change direction. 

Finally, and most importantly, each report tells you whether your portfolio should be net long, neutral or net short, based on our own indicators. 

To request a free copy of the FTSE Short Term Forecast, click here

FTSE Short Term Forecast Guidelines

The FTSE short term forecast is based on three analytical tools: Elliott Wave Principle, Bullish Trend Indicator (BTI) and Top 20 Differential.

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how groups of people behave.

It reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific and measurable patterns. One of the easiest places to see this phenomenon at work is in the financial markets, where changing investor psychology is recorded in the form of price movements. If you can identify repeating patterns in prices, and figure out where in those repeating patterns we are today, then you can predict where we are going in the future.

The Bullish Trend Indicator (BTI) is a sentiment indicator used to assess the mood of investors. This unique indicator tells us whether investors are bullish or bearish at a specific time, regardless of the state of the fundamental news. This is very important because when investors are in a bullish mood there is a high probability that the market will rise.

There are three types of BTI published in the FTSE short term forecast, BTI, 13-day BTI and 34-day BTI. The fourth indicator is the Top 20 Differential.

BTI and 34-day BTI are directional indicators. They give investors the direction of the FTSE 100.

13-day BTI and Top 20 Differential are timing indicators. They tell investors when to buy and when to sell

1. BTI: When the daily change in the BTI is down, sentiment is bearish. When the daily change in the BTI is up, sentiment is bullish. The BTI is used to assess the near term direction of the market and confirms the Elliott wave count.  When the BTI is up the near term trend is up. When the BTI is down, the near term trend is down.
2. 34-day BTI: This indicator is used to assess the major FTSE trend. When the 34-day BTI is positive the FTSE is in a bull market, when the 34-day BTI is negative the FTSE is in a bear market.

Timing indicators:

1. 13-day BTI: This indicator identifies when the FTSE 100 is near a high or a low. When the 13-day BTI is oversold the FTSE 100 is a buy, when the 13-day BTI is overbought the FTSE 100 is a sell. The 13-day BTI measures extremes in sentiment. This is important because an extreme in sentiment generally coincides with a market turn. For example, when the mood is bullish the market rises. The more the market rises the more bullish investors become and this process continues until investors mood reaches an extreme in optimism, at which point the FTSE 100 peaks and turns down. This is when the 13-day BTI is overbought. Similarly, when the FTSE 100 is declining and the mood becomes more and more bearish, the 13-day BTI will become oversold. This indicates that the mood is extremely bearish and, as a result, the FTSE 100 will bottom out and turn up.
2. Top 20 Differential:  Like the 13-day BTI, the Top 20 Differential detects when the FTSE 100 is near a high or a low. When the Top 20 Differential is oversold the FTSE 100 is a buy, when the Top 20 Differential is overbought the FTSE 100 is a sell.

How to trade the FTSE short term forecast

1. Trade in the direction given by the FTSE short term forecast. In general the direction is given by the Elliott wave and the directional indicators [BTI and 34-day BTI]. In addition the FTSE forecast must be confirmed by the S&P forecast, both charts must point in the same direction.
2. Buy when the timing indicator [13-day BTI or Top 20 Differential] is oversold
3. Sell when the timing indicator is overbought.

Examples:

1.
	The forecast is up because we have a rising BTI accompanied by a positive 34-day BTI [a rally in a bull market] and this is confirmed by the Elliott wave pattern. However, this is not the best buy signal because the two timing indicators, 13-day BTI and Top 20 Differential, are not oversold. In this example there is a potential drop to 4000 before the start of the rally. In this situation we would not go short to profit from the potential decline, instead we would wait for a decline to 4000 then go long. Always follow the forecast, when the forecast is up the rally may start immediately.
2.
	This is a better signal because the two timing indicators, 13-day BTI and Top 20 Differential, are overbought. The trend is still up [rising BTI] but because the timing indicators are overbought, the rally is nearing an end. There may be a final push to 4600 followed by the expected decline. The timing indicators always give the strongest signals, so despite the conflict between the forecast (down) and the BTI (up), the timing indicators suggest that we should go short.
3.
	In this example we do not have a strong signal because the timing indicators are neutral and there is a conflict between the forecast (up) and the BTI (down). There is a conflict because the Elliott wave pattern is bullish but the BTI is bearish. In this situation the forecast is more unpredictable and it is preferable to stay out of the market.
4.
	This is the strongest signal because the Elliott wave, directional indicator [BTI] and timing indicator [Top 20 Differential] point in the same direction.

FTSE Timing Indicator

As you can see there are various scenarios with various probabilities of success depending on whether the indicators point in the same direction or not. What we know is that the strongest signals occur when all the indicators point in the same direction. When the directional indicators are mixed, we trade based on the signals generated by the timing indicators [13-day BTI and Top 20 Differential] as they have a high probability of success. One simple way to trade the FTSE 100 would be to only use the signals generated by the 13-day BTI and Top 20 Differential. This is precisely what the FTSE Timing Indicator does. See FTSE Timing Indicator.

Anyone who trades the FTSE 100 or manage a portfolio should subscribe.

Subscribe

100% money back*

Our guarantee to you

If you are not satisfied with the service, let us know before the end of the first month of your subscription by email ask@eyield.co.uk or by calling 01761 241068. We will then cancel your subscription and give you a full refund.

* 100% money back does not apply to previous clients or individuals who have participated in a free trial of the service.

Corporate clients, hedge funds

We offer a dedicated service with on-going support including:

- Daily FTSE updates and portfolio exposure

- Regular alerts by email and telephone when the forecast changes

For subscription and service levels, please email ask@eyield.co.uk or call 01761 241068.